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		<title>The Newsonomics of the New York Times&#8217; CEO Search</title>
		<link>http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-the-new-york-times-ceo-search/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Feb 2012 15:40:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsonomics.com/?p=14933</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The next CEO is a big roll of the dice, as the gaming table shrinks. There’s little room for error. Pick the right new leader and the Times has improved its chances for survival; pick wrong and these key years of 2012-2014, as news crosses over into a mainly digital business, will be cited in the obit. AP faces a similar tension as it seeks a successor for long-time CEO Tom Curley. Dow Jones, cushioned by parent News Corp.’s better-lined pockets, too, is finalizing its CEO search. Put them together, and it’s a signal moment for American news media, as three top positions open themselves up to possibility, and imagination, simultaneously.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>First published at Nieman Journalism Lab</strong></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://newsonomics.com/at-almost-400000-digital-subscribers-inside-the-new-york-times-pay-strategy-year-2/">Related post</a>: At Almost 400,000 Digital Subscribers, Inside the New York Times Pay Strategy, Year 2</strong></p>
<p><strong><br />
</strong></p>
<div>
<div id="content_div-54673">
<p>Talk about a plum job: chief executive officer of The New York Times Company.</p>
<p>The Times is one of the most respected brands on the planet. It is a pinnacle of the news trade. It generated revenues of $2.32 billion in 2011, according to the latest quarterly numbers <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/business/media/quarterly-profit-falls-12-2-at-times-co.html?_r=1">released y</a>esterday. It just announced it added 390,000 digital subscribers in 2011. (“<a href="http://newsonomics.com/at-almost-400000-digital-subscribers-inside-the-new-york-times-pay-strategy-year-2/">At Almost 400,000 Digital Subscribers, Inside the NYT Pay Strategy, Year 2.</a>“) It sits square in the middle of the planet’s media capital, New York. And yet its long-time CEO just parachuted out in a cloud of more than <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-27/new-york-times-co-faces-leadership-vacuum.html">20 million</a> dollar bills, and few can come up with a shortlist of names who could, or should, take on the job.</p>
<p>It’s a plum job with a big pit in the middle: a pit of doubt, worry, and of straight-line arithmetic. Add up the Times’ last decade of financial woe, shared by its entire industry, and <a href="http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20120129/SUB/301299974/1009">project</a> it a little further forward, and a pit forms also in the stomach. Why would anyone want to take on such a job, and indeed, who might be among the few who have both the ability and the willingness, the courage, and the cunning?</p>
<blockquote><p>The Times needs its next CEO to be transformational. He or she must see the set of the Times’ assets — print, digital, brand, and influence — fresh and new.</p></blockquote>
<p><em>If</em> these were the good old days, the Times could round up the usual suspects, the best<em>operators</em> in the trade. Newspapers, to their R&amp;D-shunning discredit, have clung to those operational roots — the perfection of daily manufacturing of news and advertising — far too long. Those who have become the CEOs of other newspaper companies should be potential candidates, but they’re not. Most spend their days managing decline, so despite their knowledge of the trade, they’re not on the list.</p>
<p>Internally, a number of talented executives are is the midst of taking the business to the next level — witness the fledgling success of 2011′s digital circulation strategy. Despite the hoots and hollers from those in and around the industry, it’s a significant achievement, with about $86 million in annual revenue and little loss of traffic, as <a href="http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/mediawire/160780/new-york-times-traffic-flat-since-paywall/">noted</a> by Poynter’s Steve Myers. The potential of an internal appointment spurs two responses: (a) they would have done it already if they were going to do it, and (b) maybe they <em>are</em>going to do it, since they haven’t hired any top headhunter yet. The conventional wisdom is that no one appears to be sufficiently ready for the big job — but that’s always the case until someone moves up into the chair. As you peruse a beginning list of outsiders, consider how much safer — to Times culture — an inside appointment may seem, especially if a search process drags on.</p>
<p>It’s intriguing to speculate on that lack of perceived internal readiness. My sense: It’s as much about the landscape as the execs. The lesson for the Times here: It’s hard to focus both on operational excellence <em>and</em> transform the business at the same time. Yes, Times execs have been more change-oriented than their newspaper industry peers. Yet the underlying structure of their business — traditional advertising + tradition circulation, now applied more creatively — hasn’t changed. So at this particular moment in Times history, the unplanned departure of Janet Robinson, added to the contemporaneous retirement of long-time NYT digital business leader <a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2011/11/martin-nisenholtz-rss-and-the-power-of-standards/">Martin Nisenholtz</a>, produces a special moment.</p>
<p>The next CEO is a big roll of the dice, as the gaming table shrinks. There’s little room for error. Pick the right new leader and the Times has improved its chances for survival; pick wrong and these key years of 2012-2014, as news crosses over into a mainly digital business, will be cited in the obit. AP faces a similar tension as it seeks a successor for long-time CEO <a href="http://jimromenesko.com/2012/01/31/tom-curley-on-stepping-down-as-ap-ceo/">Tom Curley</a>. Dow Jones, cushioned by parent News Corp.’s better-lined pockets, too, is<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204573704577187430007445986.html?mod=e2tw"> finalizing</a> its CEO search. Put them together, and it’s a signal moment for American news media, as three top positions open themselves up to possibility, and imagination, simultaneously.</p>
<p>The Times needs its next CEO to be transformational. He or she must see the set of the Times’ assets — print, digital, brand, and influence — fresh and new, and figure out how to more quickly multiply their value in a world in which digital advertising is surpassing print and “mobile” is turning the Internet into ubiquitous electricity.</p>
<p>The new CEO must also be tradition-respecting, understanding of the unique value of The New York Times in an American and global society itself in the midst of multiple transformations. The Times, as institutionally arrogant as it often can be, is important to the Republic. Let’s just take one recent story, the first in its iEconomy series, that illustrates the Times’ place in society. Ten days ago, the Times published “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html">How the U.S. Lost Out on iPhone Work</a>.” That story has driven a new national argument. It painted the reality, the complex reality, of Apple’s outsourcing to China. It moved the conversation beyond the banal, superficial political banter of the Capitol and the campaign trail.</p>
<p>The Times certainly wasn’t first to focus on the story. We’ve heard parts of it told in many ways for years. In fact, two weeks before the Times’ story, public radio’s This American Life aired “<a href="http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/454/mr-daisey-and-the-apple-factory">Mr. Daisey and the Apple Factory</a>,” a searing on-the-Shenzhen-ground exploration of the issue. Given the program’s sensibility, it asked the question a little more piquantly — “Who makes all my crap?” — and let us hear the voices of actual workers. What’s significant with the Times’ story is its ability to change the national political agenda. That’s what great newspapers, and leading news media do, and what we need them to do more of. In a world of 24/7 political spinning and “debates” that could have been staged by P.T. Barnum, fewer (and here we <em>could</em> speculate about the future of the similarly family- and public service-directed Washington Post Co.) national news media now have the institutional weight and public-service willingness to slow the runaway train of self-righteousness.</p>
<p>Fewer media — an increasingly useful punching bag for Super PAC money — can be listened to when they say, <em>Wait a minute: Let’s look at the facts</em>. Only a few have the ability to say <em>It’s complicated</em> and have people listen and <em>maybe</em> act on those learnings. (Even Newt Gingrich, who’s built much of his campaign on media elite bashing, has fallen back on citing The New York Times — even when he sometimes <a href="http://admin.capitalnewyork.com/article/media/2012/01/4937577/about-times-story-romneys-bain-capital-gingrich-wants-you-check-out-it">should have cited others</a>, including Reuters — when he wants to say something is important and true.) Yes, it’s a new ecosystem of news, one coolly able to incorporate both This American Life and The New York Times, Ira Glass and Jill Abramson, but one with as much need to prize the old as award the new.</p>
<p>Transformational and tradition-respecting. It’s a unique combination of traits befitting a unique challenge. Let’s look at the landscape of potential Times Co. CEOs — after consultation with a few people in the know, and with a nod to HBO’s “Luck,” let’s look at some candidates from realistic to whimsical. You decide which is which.</p>
<h3>The outsiders</h3>
<p>If the Times looks outside media as we know it:</p>
<p><strong>What would Eric do?</strong> Google’s <strong>Eric Schmidt</strong> has already made his billions, and has returned CEO reins to Larry Page. He <a href="http://blog.kelseygroup.com/index.php/2009/04/07/naa-2009-google-ceo-eric-schmidt-expounds-on-the-future-of-information/">understands</a> the value of newspapers in society and his company and the Times have formed numerous, stronger-than-newspaper-industry-average partnerships. Obviously, he’d bring deep tech roots and the top-of-the-industry relationships that could propel the Times into its next stage of life while preserving its principles. He knows advertising and analytics. He knows how to be CEO in a distributed power structure, as he shared duties in the Google troika of Schmidt, Page, and Brin; that’s akin to power-sharing with Arthur Sulzberger, who, of course remains chairman and the Times’ publisher. Have he and Arthur already talked? A long shot, but transformational and jaw-dropping, just the tonic for early 2012.</p>
<p><strong>How about an old New York Times reporter with connections?</strong> That could be <strong><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Rattner">Steve Rattner</a></strong>, financier, dealmaker, pundit, and a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/steven-rattner-changing-careers-2010-11">Times reporter</a> in his youth. He’s got a long, close relationship with Arthur. He is a player. But he’s got baggage, a Securities and Exchange Commission plea in a pension kickback case. A longer shot still.</p>
<h3>In the trade</h3>
<p><strong>How about an erstwhile competitor?</strong> Former WSJ publisher <strong>Gordon Crovitz</strong> has a to-the-point resume: deep editorial and business cred, premium ad and global experience, and he was in the paid-content trenches while the Times was first failing with TimesSelect. He and Steve Brill built, and continue to operate, Press+ since its 2011 sale to RR Donnelley.</p>
<p><strong>Borrowing a page from magazines</strong>: Magazines have faced the same struggles as newspapers. In the process, they’ve washed out many an exec. At this moment, Hearst Magazines president<strong> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/30/us-media-summit-hearst-idUSTRE7AT2FB20111130">David Carey</a></strong> is riding high, but the Condé Nast veteran has only been in that job for a year. <strong>Jack Griffin</strong> is in the media-advisory business after Time Inc. rejected the Meredith-successful transplant; his reinvention credentials are well established.</p>
<p><strong>Borrow from the best:</strong> ESPN is among the leaders in the multi-platform, multimedia journalism business. President <strong><a href="http://corporate.disney.go.com/corporate/bios/george_bodenheimer.html">George Bodenheimer</a></strong> may be too great a reach; what about <strong><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=185994&amp;authType=name&amp;authToken=28hM&amp;locale=en_US&amp;pvs=pp&amp;trk=ppro_viewmore">John Kosner</a></strong>, SVP and GM for print and digital media?</p>
<h3>Anyone from the GAFA gaggle?</h3>
<p>Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple are reinventing the current digital world.<strong>Sheryl Sandberg</strong> could be a natural. The Facebook COO’s well-monied <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=7598750">resume </a>— starting with Treasury (seven years), Google sales+ (six years), and Facebook (since 2008) — could rub off on the money-starved Times. She’s in the midst of a huge IPO, so the timing is of course problematic. Says one newspaper admirer: “She understands that ultimately content is what will make a platform successful and is methodically executing against that. She’s a huge consumer of news content and cares about journalism.”</p>
<p><strong>Tim Armstrong</strong> looks, and speaks, the role, but the Times needs someone coming from a point of success, not struggle. For the same reasons, the Times can’t move on some with resumes that fit on the surface — old media experience, new media chops — but who instead of graduating with honors, left Yahoo and other places in shambles.</p>
<h3>How about the Randys?</h3>
<p>A host of Randys could be intriguing candidates.</p>
<p>Take <strong>Randy Smith</strong>, chief of Alden Global Capital. In 2011, he showed signs of wanting to roll up the U.S. newspaper industry (Europe in 2013?), trying to merge MediaNews with Freedom and staking out major Digital First territory, on the foundation of a John Paton-supercharged Journal Register. Now, though, it seems like he’s <a href="http://1philly.com/inquirer-daily-news-could-be-headed-for-sale-philadelphia-inquirer-2012-01-30/">selling off</a> his 30-percent stake in Philadelphia Media Holdings. If you want to invest big in the newspaper game, there’s no better place than the Times. And this Randy could inject his own capital.</p>
<p>Or <strong><a href="http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/iab_staff/bios">Randy Rothenburg</a></strong>, Interactive Advertising Bureau CEO, and at the nexus of the digital ad revolution. A former Times technology editor, he boomeranged back to IAB, after Time Inc.’s culture (tough place) rejected him as a new digital leader.</p>
<p>Or <strong>Randy Michaels</strong>, former COO of the Tribune Company. He brought a little, well a lot, of levity to the Tribune Company, and Sam Zell’s boy genius could be ready for a revival after being sacked, by, well, a Times <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/06/business/media/06tribune.html">story</a>.</p>
<p>Enough for my speculation, real or otherwise. Who’s your pick?</p>
</div>
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		<title>At Almost 400,000 Digital Subscribers, Inside the New York Times Pay Strategy, Year 2</title>
		<link>http://newsonomics.com/at-almost-400000-digital-subscribers-inside-the-new-york-times-pay-strategy-year-2/</link>
		<comments>http://newsonomics.com/at-almost-400000-digital-subscribers-inside-the-new-york-times-pay-strategy-year-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 17:00:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://newsonomics.com/?p=14897</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Takeaways:

It's 12% of the the New York Times overall circulation revenue for the year. That puts the annual circulation number in positive territory -- up 3% for the year, and a lively 8% for the fourth quarter -- reversing the 2010 trend.

It's $100 million less (about 186 M for New York Times itself) than the amount of digital advertising revenue for the year. So it's important, but the digital ad number still is more decisive in making up for the print revenue decline. Despite 10% digital ad growth for the News Media group (without About properties), the NYT property still saw a 3% decline in ad revenue for the year. One more way to look at it: the Times took in $22 million less in advertising overall in 2011, so new digital circulation revenue exceeded that decline by 4X.

It's 1.1% of the Times' 33 million U.S. unique visitors, once we take out international buyers. That one percent seems like a tiny number, but it's 34% of its print circulation. Anyhow, "total unique visitors" are getting to be close to an irrelevant number. Paid readers who also consume a majority or strong plurality of page views are the customers the Times' care about.

It's four times ousted CEO Janet Robinson's good-bye payout. That's small consolidation to outraged staffers, dealing with their own 1% issue.

It's four times the dividend family members are hoping to see reinstated. The dividend paid out $20.8 million in 2008. Even they need to be kept happy to keep the Times out of public play, there are few new dollars to assuage them.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The numbers have quieted most of the skeptics,<a href="http://adage.com/article/guest-columnists/media-companies-analytics/148670/"> including</a> Clay Shirky. Today, the New York Times summed up a year of its digital circulation strategy, and the report reinforced the notion: there&#8217;s a there there. It&#8217;s not the there of saving the newspaper industry, or even the Times, but it&#8217;s a strong indication that some readers will indeed pay for digital news access &#8212; and that paying for subscriptions opens other doors as well.  The numbers in brief, from this morning&#8217;s Times 2011 earnings report:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>390,000 digital subscribers overall.</strong></li>
<li><strong>Growth rate of 20% fourth quarter over third quarter.</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Those are the public numbers. We&#8217;re left to extrapolate the dollars. My extrapolation is that the run-rate for the Times&#8217; new digital revenue is about $86 million a year. We take the 390,000 digital subscriber number and assign an average revenue per digital customer of $221 a year. At its four-week (or 13X a year) billing rate, that&#8217;s a little less than $17 every four weeks. Full all-access (tablet + smartphone + online) costs $35 each period, tablet access $20, smartphone, $15. So let&#8217;s take the differing price points, rolling intro offers (99 cents for the first month), special deals and cancellations into account. Let&#8217;s believe that it&#8217;s the lowest price point digital product (online + smartphone) for $15 each four weeks generates the majority of buys. Let&#8217;s then use a $17 average.</p>
<p><strong>That produces $86 million a year</strong>, or more than eight times what the Times took in annually from Times Select; time to bury that ghost. If we compare it to some other Times&#8217; yardsticks, it takes on more meaning:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>It&#8217;s<strong> 12%</strong> of the the New York Times overall circulation revenue for the year. </strong>That puts the annual circulation number in positive territory &#8212; <strong>up 3% for the year, and a lively 8% for the fourth quarter </strong>&#8211; reversing the 2010 trend.</li>
<li><strong>It&#8217;s $100 million less (about $186M for New York Times itself) than the amount of digital advertising revenue for the year. </strong>So it&#8217;s important, but the digital ad number still is more decisive in making up for the print revenue decline<strong>. </strong><strong>Despite 10% digital ad growth for the News Media group (without About properties), the NYT property still saw a 3% decline in ad revenue for the year. One more way to look at it: the Times took in $22 million less in advertising overall in 2011, so new digital circulation revenue exceeded that decline by 4X. </strong></li>
<li><strong>It&#8217;s 1.1% of the Times&#8217; 33 million U.S. unique visitors, </strong><strong>once we take out international buyers</strong><strong>.</strong> That one percent <em>seems </em>like a tiny number, but it&#8217;s<strong> <strong>34%</strong> of its <a href="http://accessabc.wordpress.com/2011/11/01/the-top-25-u-s-newspapers-from-september-2011-fas-fax/">print circulation</a></strong>. Anyhow, &#8220;total unique visitors&#8221; are getting to be close to an irrelevant number. Paid readers who also consume a majority or strong plurality of page views are the customers the Times&#8217; care about.</li>
<li><strong>It&#8217;s four times ousted CEO Janet Robinson&#8217;s <a href="http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/mediawire/161026/nyts-janet-robinsons-exit-package-exceeds-21-million/">good-bye payout</a>. </strong>That&#8217;s small consolidation to<a href="http://jimromenesko.com/2011/12/16/newspaper-guild-of-new-york-blasts-robinsons-4-5m-consulting-fee/"> outraged staffers</a>, dealing with their own 1% issue.</li>
<li><strong>It&#8217;s four times the dividend <a href="http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/pinching_pennies_pWkCs8XR2FQkYlkrBLU4HJ">family members are hoping</a> to see reinstated. </strong>The dividend paid out $20.8 million in 2008. Even they need to be kept happy to keep the Times out of public play, there are few new dollars to assuage them.</li>
</ul>
<p>So, overall, the Times digital circulation seems to be an increasingly important part of the next-gen publishing model, but not an earth-shaking one.  I think much of the story &#8212; and import &#8212; here is behind the scenes. As we look at the mechanics of selling digital access, we see a business model with birthing pangs, and one that may lead to anticipated and unanticipated healthy development.  In talking with Paul Smurl, VP of paid products for the Times, this week, I picked up some related datapoints that help us understand what this first year may lead to:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>70%+ % of the Times&#8217; print subscribers have now &#8220;authenticated.&#8221;</strong> That&#8217;s hugely important. Several years ago, the Times began exhorting its print subscribers &#8212; through direct mail and e-mail &#8212; to sign up for online access to the Times, laying the ground work, intentionally and unintentionally, for the model of All Access that it introduced a year ago. In August, 2010 the Times had only <strong>50%</strong> of Times subscribers registered. That didn&#8217;t mean that only <strong>50%</strong> read the Times online. It meant that a significant portion didn&#8217;t read the Times online and that those who did, but didn&#8217;t register, didn&#8217;t associate much value with their print subscription payment. Why register, when anyone can go to nytimes.com and read for free?</li>
</ul>
<p>Now, with three-quarters of print subscribers registered, the Times has climbed a major mountain. Paying customers increasingly see value in both print and digital. The Times can begin, as it has to link up print subscriber profiles (address, demographics, buying history, and more) with digital usage (what read on which device when and <em>lots</em> more).  So through these initiatives, the Times is moving &#8212; as every smart publisher must &#8212; toward a<em> single view</em> of its reader customer. That view then informs the Times&#8217; ability to better target advertising and to sell readers more digital and print stuff, like the <a href="http://www.nytstore.com/">New York Times Store</a>. (And it&#8217;s all about stuff, as George Carlin timelessly <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvgN5gCuLac">reminds</a> us.)</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Look beyond subscription sales</strong>. Hearst, Rodale, Conde Nast and other magazine publishers have led the way in <a href="http://www.foliomag.com/2011/magazine-publishers-look-where-digital-booming-book-business">producing </a>new ebook specials. The future here &#8212; think of mining the NYT database &#8212; is game-changing. Smurl says he thinks of it as &#8220;SKU management,&#8221; a new discipline for a new publisher. Look for the Times to start with specials around events like the Olympics and the Oscars, feeling its way along as it figures out &#8220;cover price,&#8221; sponsorship and ad potentials.</li>
<li><strong>Compare old and new world costs of acquisition:</strong> It costs a lot for a newspaper to sign up a new subscriber. I&#8217;ve heard estimates from $50 to $200 per new customer. The cost of acquiring a digital customer can be as little as near-zero to a small fraction of the print cost. Here, we begin to get into the positives of the digital press shift; picking up new customers costs far less. CFO Jim Follo noted on this morning&#8217;s call that costs for the company will<em> not </em>decrease this (the first time in four years), and part of the reason is increased spending on digital marketing. The Times is pouring the limited cash it has in going to digital subs.<strong></strong></li>
<li><strong>Churn is less with digital than print customers: </strong>Skeptics opined that people might sign up, but then flee after sampling the paid digital product. The opposite appears true: Smurl says digital churn is less than print churn. Add together the low cost of digital acquisition and the lower churn, and you have a formula for much digital marketing experimentation in 2012 and beyond. Who is the Times trying targeting to buy? &#8220;Like-mindeds,&#8221; in Smurl&#8217;s parlance, those with curiosity, societal engagement &#8212; and education and income to match.</li>
<li><strong>About 12% of digital buyers live outside the U.S.: </strong>That&#8217;s a growing number. It&#8217;s an indication that the Times is becoming a global news medium. Of course, that&#8217;s always been true, in Internet times, but largely meaningless. It&#8217;s been hard to sell advertising outside the U.S. (other than the Times-owned International Herald Tribune&#8217;s traditional business) and, of course, there was no way to make money from digital readers. Now that&#8217;s changed. With only 5% of the world&#8217;s population (last week I focused on this upside in &#8220;<a href="http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-the-media-global-imperative/">The Newsonomics of the Global Media Imperative</a>&#8220;), the Times has huge growth potential beyond its core market. By 2016, I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if 25% of the Times&#8217; digital subscribers &#8212; many with no access to print, remember &#8212; are non-U.S.</li>
<li><strong>Exploiting Sunday: </strong>It took about 12 seconds for Times&#8217; readers to figure out the new subscription math, when the company when digital-paid last year. When they did the math and saw they could get the four-pound Sunday paper and &#8220;all-digital-access&#8221; for $60 less than &#8220;all-digital-access&#8221; by itself, they took the newsprint. Which stabilized Sunday sales, and the Sunday ad base. Then the Times was able to announce a near-historic fact in October: Sunday home delivery subscriptions had actually<a href="http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-the-new-york-times-sunday-circulation-gain-and-getting-ready-for-paid-content-2-0/"> increased </a>year-over-year, a positive point in an industry used to parsing negatives. Now, Sunday is emerging a key point of strategic planning. Keep the Sunday paper strong for at least several more years &#8212; and quite likely longer &#8212; and the Times gains a fighting chance to find a <a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2011/03/the-newsonomics-of-sunday-papertablet-subscriptions/">print/digital hybrid model</a> to sustain its journalism.</li>
</ul>
<p>In addition to his day job, Smurl has been busy over the last year talking to newspaper publishers, near and far, about going paid. Dozens of people have filed into the Times to see what they can learn, and apply. In addition to the tricks of the trade, Smurl finds itself offering quasi-spiritual advice. &#8220;You can&#8217;t be apologetic about charging,&#8221; he tells his often down-hearted visitors. &#8220;Sometimes it&#8217;s as much a motivational session as anything else,&#8221; he says. Today&#8217;s motivational lesson heard all around the media world is summed up neatly in four words: 390,000 paying digital subscribers.</p>
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		<title>The Newsonomics of the Global Media Imperative</title>
		<link>http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-the-media-global-imperative/</link>
		<comments>http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-the-media-global-imperative/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jan 2012 15:40:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Consider how much revenue each of Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon earned from outside the U.S in the first three quarters of 2011:

Google: 54 percent
Apple: 54 percent
Facebook: 38 percent
Amazon: 46 percent]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>First published at Nieman Journalism Lab</strong></p>
<p>Let’s elevate, for a moment.</p>
<p>Let’s take a <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/11/video-perhaps-the-best-hd-view-of-earth-from-space-ever/248395/">NASA view</a> of the media landscape, enjoying the clear, whole-earth picture of our struggling news planet.</p>
<p>The wide view would tell us that, although the U.S. often believes itself to be the straw that stirs the global drink, we make up but 5 percent of the world’s population. Our <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Relationship">special friends</a> in the U.K. make up only another 1 percent. While much of the world’s digital inventiveness and entrepreneurial investment is born in the U.S.A., the marketplace for digital news, media, and information products has been going increasingly global.</p>
<p>The global digital media revolution is transforming how, in economic terms, we now think of the business. Global growth is no longer an add-on to the usual in-country business model; it’s becoming a major driver of business — and product — planning.</p>
<p>As we look at the newsonomics of the global media imperative, let’s pick out just a few of the many diverse datapoints on which we have to draw:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>The Financial Times, probably the <a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2010/08/the-newsonomics-of-the-ft-as-an-internet-retailer/">single best model</a> of print-to-digital transformation success, has announced that its digital business leader, <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=10641668">Rob Grimshaw</a>, is leaving Number One Southwark Bridge, astride the Thames, for New York City.</strong> Grimshaw is managing director of FT.com, and his business is truly global. The company, founded in 1888, now finds 31 percent of its readers in the Americas and only 23 percent in the U.K. — with another 13 percent now in Asia. For the FT, Grimshaw’s move is logical: Go where your customers are, and to the heart of digital innovation. (Talk to Europeans in the digital business, and they’ll tell you how America-centric, and West Coast-centric, the digital business is, somewhat to their dismay.) For the FT, even with its good number of American consumers, the U.S. is “an emerging market,” a belief held by Reuters as well.</li>
<li><strong>If you were to name the FT’s most head-to-head competitor (for time, and thus indirectly for money), it would be The Wall Street Journal. The Journal’s digital audience is now 30 percent international, and just last week in launched still another international local (in native language) edition, <a href="http://www.dowjones.com/pressroom/releases/2012/011012-WSJGermanyLaunch-0003.asp">for Germany</a>.</strong> The Journal’s crosstown rival, The New York Times, is moving globally as well. Already 12 percent of its paying digital subscribers are international, with the Times applying its pay strategies to its European operation, the International Herald Tribune. Last year, it also launched <a href="http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/welcome-to-india-ink/">India Ink</a>, focused on that country’s news and culture, with an on-the-ground team there. Expect the Times to move into China this year.</li>
<li><strong>Less than a year after launching its first non-U.S. site in Canada, Huffington Post last week added an <a href="http://corp.aol.com/2012/01/19/the-huffington-post-media-group-and-gruppo-editoriale-lespresso/">Italian site</a>, alongside its French one</strong>. It continues negotiating with publisher partners in several other western European countries, following up on Arianna’s meet-and-greets there last fall.</li>
<li><strong>The (second) British invasion of the U.S. continues apace</strong> (&#8220;<a href="http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-the-british-invasion/">The newsonomics of the British invasion</a>,&#8221;), as the Guardian (reinvigorated U.S.<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/help/insideguardian/2011/sep/14/guardian-us-launch-homepage">product</a>), the Independent (<a href="http://paidcontent.org/article/419-the-independent-launches-overseas-press-meter-pricey-ipad-edition/">using Press+</a> to sell access to U.S. consumers), the BBC (staffing up editorial and ad pushes) and the Daily Mail, which announced a new U.S. push last year and said last week it is now <a href="http://thenextweb.com/media/2012/01/19/the-daily-mail-looks-for-more-web-traffic-with-an-india-focused-mailonline/">moving on</a> to India.</li>
</ul>
<p>This isn’t just about news media. Netflix, in yesterday’s earnings <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120125-718479.html">report</a>, tells us that almost 10 percent of its streaming business is now global, almost two million of 21 million streaming subscribers. That global growth — and huge upside — is balancing Netflix’s 2011 pricing stumbles.</p>
<p>For an even bigger picture perspective on the global imperative, let’s look at the four digital behemoths that are reshaping everything in their paths (get out of the way, if you can, or accede to junior partner status). Consider how much revenue each of Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon earned from outside the U.S in the first three quarters of 2011, from my recent report for Outsell, <a href="http://www.outsellinc.com/store/products/1044-getting-it-right-with-gafa">“Getting it Right with GAFA”</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li>Google: 54 percent</li>
<li>Apple: 54 percent</li>
<li>Facebook: 38 percent</li>
<li>Amazon: 46 percent</li>
</ul>
<p>Yes, there’s lots of current political hullaballoo about “bringing jobs home to the U.S.,” but the truth is that much of the digital industry, as with their brethren in the Fortune 500, is now truly global. Look at those GAFA numbers and you have a harder time thinking of them as American companies, in the traditional sense of serving American customers.</p>
<p>Forget the 99 percent meme; think of the 95 percent (outside the U.S.) as the real opportunity for the companies formerly known as national. (And, yes, the global imperative further illustrates the difficulty that metro and community newspapers face in finding growth. <em>Other</em> than metro newspapers’ smartphone, tablet, and web city-guide potential for international visitors — $1.34 <em>trillion</em> <a href="http://travel.usatoday.com/destinations/dispatches/post/2011/03/foreign-visitation-to-us-is-up-where-they-come-from-and-where-they-go/149660/1">spent</a> by 60 million of them last year — the lure of global riches doesn’t do much to support community journalism in our far-flung land.)</p>
<p>It’s a stark fact for what once were nationally defined media businesses: If you don’t go global, you’re at an increasing disadvantage to your competitors — and who isn’t a competitor for audience or advertising? If you stay nationally focused, you’re trying to wring as much revenue out of a much smaller market, while competitors are building their top line and their capability to innovate with global revenues. So increasingly, I think we’ll see media companies that are either global or regional/local, with national ones more the exception than the rule. Yes, there’s a role that the English language plays here, as about a billion people worldwide may read English well enough to be eligible audience, and, that, too adds to the imperative to compete against other English-first media based in London or New York. Yet as proven with the Journal’s non-English editions, this is about more than language domination. We also see early signs of non-English products finding their way to English speakers, as <a href="http://www.worldcrunch.com/">Worldcrunch</a> (“All news is global”) brings translations of top worldwide titles to the market.</p>
<p>There are lots of ways to play the global game. Many newspaper companies are putting out editions of their core product, aimed at in-country issues. Some are putting a new face on the same content. Then there are those truly becoming multi-national news and information companies.</p>
<p>You’d have to put Oslo-based Schibsted in that group. Now <a href="https://clients.outsellinc.com/revenue/detail.php?i=22">eighth</a> overall by revenue in the global news industry, the company operates online classifieds businesses in <a href="http://www.schibsted.com/en/Our-brands/Online-Classifieds/">28 nations</a>; in 20, that’s its main business. Those nations can be found on three continents and now include such populous growing markets as India, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, as well as much of Latin America. That’s a truly global play that is supplying Schibsted with 49 percent of its profits, on just 25 percent of total revenues.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.newscorp.com/">News Corp.</a> — the leading company by news revenues worldwide — is certainly flexing its muscles, even if it contracts them for the time being in the U.K. amid scandal. Just in the last week, we saw the company’s moves in Turkey and Afghanistan, which aim to add to its presence on every continent. As a pipes (satellite and cable) and content company, the lines between the two will blur. Expect for instance, products like the innovative WSJ Live  (&#8220;<a href="http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-wsj-live/">The Newsonomics of WSJ Live</a>&#8220;) to find carriage all over the world as digital distribution and monetization mature.</p>
<p>A lot of what we are seeing in the marketplace today is prologue. If you look at how small the non-home-market revenues are for many companies — in the low single digits — we see not global businesses, but national businesses with stronger global <em>intentions</em>.</p>
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		<title>Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-29</title>
		<link>http://newsonomics.com/twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-29/</link>
		<comments>http://newsonomics.com/twitter-weekly-updates-for-2012-01-29/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2012 23:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
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		<title>Twitter Updates for 2012-01-26</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jan 2012 23:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
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<li>d: TheForeignWife Thanks much, maybe that&#039;s why TSA keeps patting me down! <a href="http://twitter.com/kdoctor/statuses/162238108916658177" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Jan 2012 23:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Newsonomics of the News Dial &#039;O Matic http://t.co/SKyxEi43 # The Newsonomics of the Long Good-Bye: Kodak&#039;s, Sears&#039; and Newspapers http://t.co/6pMApyJt # Powered by Twitter Tools]]></description>
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<li>The Newsonomics of the News Dial &#039;O Matic <a href="http://t.co/SKyxEi43" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/SKyxEi43</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/kdoctor/statuses/159719967091208192" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
<li>The Newsonomics of the Long Good-Bye: Kodak&#039;s, Sears&#039;  and Newspapers <a href="http://t.co/6pMApyJt" rel="nofollow">http://t.co/6pMApyJt</a> <a href="http://twitter.com/kdoctor/statuses/159717517923860480" class="aktt_tweet_time">#</a></li>
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		<title>The Newsonomics of Signature Content</title>
		<link>http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-signature-content/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jan 2012 15:51:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Forget “content wants to be free.” Now content wants a fee. And everyone from Time Inc to The New York Times to the Memphis Commercial Appeal to Hulu’s co-owners (Fox, Disney, and Comcast) see gold. They see another digital revenue stream, in addition to advertising or to cable subscription fees. Yet they are increasingly believing they’ve got to up the ante (and Hulu is raising new funds to buy original programming) to compete and to win those consumer dollars. News companies — at least one in ten U.S. daily newspapers and many consumer magazines — are rapidly embracing digital circulation revenue and All-Access. Yet results have been quite uneven. That makes sense: Consumers will pay for digital news, feature, and entertainment content, but they don’t want to overpay, and they’ll increasingly be forced to make choices. Buy this; let that go.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>First published at Nieman Lab</strong></p>
<p>What’s your signature content?</p>
<p>Quick: If somebody buttonholed you in an elevator, a school play, or a bar, and said, “Why should I pay you for that?” — what do you tell them?</p>
<p>Each passing week, it seems we’re further into the age of signature content. That only makes sense: If the death of distance is now old news, if everything is available everywhere at the touch of button or the swipe of a finger, then what makes any news or entertainment brand stand out amid this plague of plenty?</p>
<p>Closed systems — from three or four TV networks to less than a dozen big movie studios to a half-dozen major magazine publishers to geographically dominant newspapers — made signature content less important. Sure, big shows and big names have always driven media to some extent, but now, media without big names or big shows are going to get lost in the ether. Take Hulu’s <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577163162257430538.html">announcement</a> last week about Hulu Originals. You do have to wonder if Hulu’s fictional 13-episode “Battleground,” about a dysfunctional political campaign, will be bested by the Republican reality show in progress when the show debuts next month. Hulu is also bringing a Morgan Spurlock series for a second run, and probably will feature one other new program. The Hulu announcement joins Netflix’s own foray into signature content. Three years ago, would the thought of Netflix signing up <a href="http://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kommentarer/NRK-bruker-Little-Steven-i-politisk-spill-6725221.html#.TxertmPOw4Q">Little Steven</a> to do an original comedy series have crossed anyone’s imagination?</p>
<p>Hulu and Netflix both need to distinguish themselves in the market — not only from each other, but from Comcast, DirecTV, and Time Warner, among others. They need to buy protection as supposed masses consider <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203550304577138841278154700.html">cutting the cord</a> on packaged services, Roku-ing and Apple-enabling Internet video onto their living-room screens. In movies and TV, we’re quickly morphing from a world of news and entertainment anywhere — get all of these things, somewhat haphazardly (Comcast Xfinity, for instance) on all of our devices — to one in which consumers ask, “What special do you have for me, <em>in addition</em> to my all access? Yes, All-Access, the cool feature of 2011, will quickly graduate from a wow to an expectation.</p>
<p>Why as consumers should we pay $7.99 (down from an <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/web/11/17/hulu.plus.price.drop.mashable/index.html">initial $9.99</a>) to Hulu Plus, when the same stuff (kinda sorta) is available through Boxee, or Apple TV, or Netflix, if I can find it? Why am I paying $7.99 a month (apparently the magic price of the moment) to Netflix for a catalog of films that is both voluminous and too often lacking what I want? Consumers are going to be asking that question a lot more.</p>
<p>Publishers, distributors, aggregators, and networks all want more money, and they’ve seen — courtesy of tablets and All-Access — that consumers are now more ready to pay for digital content than ever before.</p>
<p>Forget “content wants to be free.” Now content wants a fee. And everyone from Time Inc to The New York Times to the <a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2011/10/the-newsonomics-of-nyts-sunday-gain-and-paid-content-2-0/">Memphis Commercial Appeal</a> to Hulu’s co-owners (Fox, Disney, and Comcast) see gold. They see another digital revenue stream, in addition to advertising or to cable subscription fees. Yet they are increasingly believing they’ve got to up the ante (and Hulu is <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-15/hulu-plans-to-raise-money-to-fund-expansion-into-original-shows.html">raising new funds</a> <em>to buy original programming</em>) to compete and to win those consumer dollars.</p>
<p>News companies — at least one in ten U.S. daily newspapers and many consumer magazines — are rapidly embracing digital circulation revenue and All-Access. Yet results have been quite uneven. That makes sense: Consumers will pay for digital news, feature, and entertainment content, but they don’t want to overpay, and they’ll increasingly be forced to make choices. Buy this; let that go.</p>
<p>Let’s be clear. Paid media is paid media, and the original-programming pushes of the video companies have great meaning for news and magazine companies, global to local. For them, the calculus is similar. News and magazine brands can launch new products, though that’s out-of-their-DNA-tough for many. So they’ve focused primarily on sub-brands, many of which are people. These are the faces of news and magazines; many of these have become hot commodities over the last several years (&#8220;<a href="http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-journalistic-star-power/">The Newsonomics of Journalistic Star Power</a>&#8220;) as companies try to distinguish themselves — and give readers and viewers a reason to pick them out of the crowd.</p>
<p>How, though, can media companies afford to pay a premium for branded, promotable talent, talent that may open consumers’ pocketbooks? That’s easy: spend less on other content. So we’ve got the rise of user-generated content, obtainable free or cheap, and all kinds of new syndicate action from <a href="http://www.demandmedia.com/solutions/content-channels/">Demand Media</a> to startup <a href="https://www.ebyline.com/">Ebyline</a> (and maybe <a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2012/01/newsrights-potential-new-content-packages-niche-audiences-and-revenue/">NewsRight</a>), all trying to make it cheap and easy to get more medium- and higher-quality content more cheaply. What’s old is new again — as a young features editor, I got regular visits from syndicate and wire salesman, ranging from high-quality to the Copley News Service, that sold its stuff by the pound.</p>
<p>Another prominent model no news or magazine company can afford to ignore: The Huffington Post. Back to the early days when Betsy Morgan first teamed up with Arianna, HuffPost has worked this evolving content pyramid. At the top, a few highly paid site faces, many opinionated faces (some paid, most not), and then low-cost aggregation, much of it AP, headlined with the site’s recognizable swagger.</p>
<p>Then, of course, there’s the old standby: staff cutting. We’ve seen lots of staff cutting. In fact, these days, while we see some announcements like Media General’s big <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2011/12/12/tampa-tribune-begins-layoff-of-165.html">Tampa cut</a>, most of the bloodletting is less public, but no less real. If you need to pay more to stars, and ad revenues are still declining, staff cuts of <em>less than premium</em> content (and those that produce it) make economic sense (&#8220;<a href="http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-the-new-news-cost-pyramid/">The Newsonomics of the New News Cost Pyramid</a>&#8220;). It’s the new news math.</p>
<p>These newsonomics of signature content are getting clearer. Netflix is <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-15/hulu-plans-to-raise-money-to-fund-expansion-into-original-shows.html">planning to spend</a> 5 percent of its expenses — or $100 million a year — on original, Netflix-defining content. Hulu <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-15/hulu-plans-to-raise-money-to-fund-expansion-into-original-shows.html">is spending</a> about a quarter what Netflix’s total, or $500 million in total, on all content licensing this year. We don’t know how much of that is for original content, but observers believe “Battleground” will cost $15-20 million for its 13 episodes. With its other forays, it will probably spend closer to 10 percent of its content budget on original content.</p>
<p>Curiously, many newspaper newsrooms constitute only 10-20 percent of the overall expenses of a daily newspaper company. So we’re starting to see some new, and old, arithmetic play out here.</p>
<p>Simply, Andy Forssell, Hulu’s SVP of content, <a href="http://www.rikaroo.com/blog/hulu-joins-the-original-programming-game">explained</a> the cost/benefit ratio to Variety: “…having an original scripted series that hasn’t been seen anywhere else yet is considered the best tool for standing out with either advertisers or viewers.”</p>
<p>As usual, we see the bifurcation of the bigger national brands — those with more audience to gain and more money to spend — and local news brands. While many local newspapers have cut to the bone, with too much of the tissue in the form of experienced, name-brand metro and sports columnists cajoled or drummed into “early retirement,” we see increased branding of stars at places like Time, The New York Times, Fox News, and ESPN. The sports network may be the classic business model of our age, and in its anchors and top analysts — many initially lured from daily newspapers — it has shown the way for many years now.</p>
<p>At the Times, consider business editor Larry Ingrassia’s build-up of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/business/index.html">business columnists</a>, from veterans Gretchen Morgenson and Floyd Norris to new(er)bies Andrew Ross Sorkin, Brian Stelter, David Carr, Ron Lieber, and David Pogue. And the Times more recently <a href="http://www.adweek.com/news/press/james-stewart-join-new-york-times-business-desk-131507">picked up</a> James Stewart from archrival Dow Jones.</p>
<p>At Fox News, Roger Ailes has cannily built the most successful cable news operation not on the interchangeable blondes that provide so much fodder for Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, but on O’Reilly and Hannity.</p>
<p>At NBC, the news franchise is so built around Brian Williams that his <a href="http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/rock-center-with-brian-williams-gets-debut-date_b90601">well-received newsmagazine</a> “Rock Center with Brian Williams” is synonymous with its host.</p>
<p>At Time Warner’s CNN and Time, we see the building of a worldly franchise on Fareed Zakaria’s clear-eyed, no-nonsense view of our times.</p>
<p>And then there’s the more local and regional press. Newspapers have long believed that it wasn’t any one or a half-dozen names that sold the paper. They’ve believed the news itself was the star, and the daily information report was the brand. That may be still be true of the Times, the Journal, the Financial Times, the Guardian, and a handful of other national/global news organizations — all of which have substantial, multi-hundred newsrooms that produce branded, unique products. It’s less true of regional and local dailies, many of which still present too much commoditized news in national, business, entertainment, and sports coverage, and have bid goodbye to many faces familiar to readers. Those that have retained familiar faces must do what they can to keep them; all need to recruiting more.</p>
<p>Then they may have a good answer to the question, in one form or another, consumers and advertisers will increasingly ask: What’s<em> your</em> signature content?</p>
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		<title>Twitter Updates for 2012-01-19</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jan 2012 23:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Newsonomics of the News Dial &#039;O Matic http://t.co/SKyxEi43 # The Newsonomics of the Long Good-Bye: Kodak&#039;s, Sears&#039; and Newspapers http://t.co/6pMApyJt # Powered by Twitter Tools]]></description>
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		<title>The Newsonomics of the Long Goodbye: Kodak’s, Sears’, and Newspapers’</title>
		<link>http://newsonomics.com/the-newsonomics-of-the-long-goodbye-kodak%e2%80%99s-sears%e2%80%99-and-newspapers%e2%80%99/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Jan 2012 16:15:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Innovation]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[What stands out most prominently is that U.S. newspapers’ ad revenue decline is worse, percentage wise, than either Kodak’s or Sears’. Yes, although Kodak and Sears are now poster children of legacy businesses gone wrong, newspapers — as counted through their main revenue source — are doing worse.]]></description>
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<p><strong>First published at Nieman Journalism Lab</strong></p>
<p>No old-world icon is safe. Just in recent weeks, both Kodak and Sears have percolated back into the news, offering headline writers a dilemma borrowed from the classic Saturday Night Live Weekend Update <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General%C3%ADssimo_Francisco_Franco_is_still_dead">line</a>, “Generalíssimo Francisco Franco is still dead.”</p>
<p>How <em>long</em> have these companies been dying? Yes, it was a surprise sometime a long time ago, that digital media was challenging Kodak and that Walmart, Target, Kohl’s, and later Amazon were making life difficult for one of America’s retailing pioneers.</p>
<p>Ask an American <em>in 1990</em> if he could imagine a world without Kodak. Or a shopper of a world without Sears. Now, in 2012, it’s a lot easier to imagine. These are companies ebbing away, drip by agonizing drip. Which reminds us, of course, of the newspaper industry, and the question still on some lips: Can you imagine a world without newspapers? Now two years into the tablet, it’s much more easily imaginable. I always laugh when asked the question, “Will newspapers exist in 2015 or 2020?” Papyrus is a durable medium. It’s just that digital is rapidly replacing print, and in the process rapidly restructuring the nature of news ownership, news creation, news employment, and more. We’ll have some kind of print for the rest of our lives, but it will be the sidecar to the revving engine of digital news and information, as more and more publishers call it quits on print.</p>
<p>We like to think of change in the world as an on/off switch. This….or that. In fact, the world changes both in an instant and agonizingly slowly.</p>
<p>Let’s call the slow disappearance of familiar brands the newsonomics of the long goodbye. Take companies that have huge imprints in our culture and habits — and cashflows to match — and their disappearance from our lives can seem like it is moving in glacial digital time. But that disappearance is no less real. It is a fact of the news landscape that newspapers, and to some extent consumer print magazines, will disappear over time. We can take bets how much more quickly they’ll <em>continue to vanish</em>. By <em>continue</em>, I mean that data shows 44 percent less newsprint usage (and about 75-80 percent of all newsprint usage is attributed to newspapers) over the past four years, according to <a href="http://www.forestweb.com/Corporate/view/reeltime_report.cfm">The Reel Time Report</a>. (And for more on the industry-leading <a href="http://editorandpublisher.com/TopStories/Article/Newsosaur--Daily-Paper-Going-the-Way-of-the-Milkman">Michigan Meltdown</a>, check out Alan Mutter’s column at E&amp;P.)</p>
<p>So we can see this goodbye is both real and long. At some point, though, you see this message (on one medium or another), “Kinograph to cease production of silent films,” as borrowed from the neo-silent film <em>The Artist</em>. (Perhaps someday we’ll be talking about “neo-print”?)</p>
<p>Let’s ask a couple of questions about the relationship of Kodak, Sears, and newspapers. How do their revenue slides compare? What lessons apply across the three?</p>
<p>On revenues, take a look at the chart below. I’m tracking revenues from Kodak, Sears, and all U.S. dailies through 2010 — with final 2011 data not yet in, though the year wasn’t kind to any of the three.</p>
<p><img src="http://www.niemanlab.org/images/doctor-sears-kodak-newspapers-chart.png" alt="" width="600" height="420" /></p>
<p>What stands out most prominently is that U.S. newspapers’ <em>ad revenue decline</em> is worse, percentage wise, than either Kodak’s or Sears’. Yes, although Kodak and Sears are now poster children of legacy businesses gone wrong, newspapers — as counted through their main revenue source — are doing worse.</p>
<p>Ad revenue is down 53 percent over the period shown, while Kodak’s overall revenues are down 49 percent. Sears’ overall revenues (I removed Kmart revenues, which became part of the Sears Holding Company in a 2005 merger) are down 31 percent over the same period.</p>
<p>The savings grace for newspapers has been circulation revenue, down a <em>relatively </em>low 6 percent in the last decade. Circulation has continued to plummet, but continuing price increases have moderated the revenue losses. Circulation revenue now makes up about 30 percent of all U.S. daily newspaper revenue, so it’s significant — but not enough to stabilize companies reeling from ad revenue loss.</p>
<p>If you combine ad and circulation revenue, over the decade, newspapers have lost 45 percent of the two tentpoles of their business overall, four points less than Kodak.</p>
<p>Share prices will tell us a similar story, as investors — slow to the understanding of the long goodbye — <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&amp;s=SHLD&amp;l=on&amp;z=l&amp;q=l&amp;c=ek">head for the exits</a>.</p>
<p>What are the threads among our three cases? Digital news pioneer Steve Yelvington <a href="http://www.yelvington.com/content/what-newsrooms-should-learn-kodak">shared</a> a similar thought about Kodak/newspapers relationship, this week, noting that “brands decay” and <strong>“</strong><strong>early to market doesn&#8217;t mean you win,” among other lessons. Many a newspaper employee wil identify with the words of Credit Suisse analyst Gary Balter, in recently <a href="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9406E0DE103CF932A35752C0A9649D8B63">describing</a> Sears: &#8221;Here is a company that is deteriorating in front of our eyes, and it could cost a lot of jobs.&#8221;</strong></p>
<p>Let’s extend the metaphor. Remember those “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kodak_Photo_Spot">Kodak Photo Spots</a>,” where tourists were encouraged to stand and take the exact same picture that tens of thousands had taken before them? Let’s put the newspaper owner — or buyer, given that there’s been a <a href="http://newsonomics.com/now-at-fire-sale-prices-a-few-daily-newspapers-and-maybe-more/">spate of recent purchases</a> — on that spot, and see what they can see about this landscape.</p>
<p>The viewing is hugely important. Why? While we may say <em>newspapers</em> are dying, we can say long live the news. Those owning — or <em>buying into</em> or <em>creating</em> news franchises — do still have time to pivot and learn from failure. History is not fate; this Kodak/Sears history is simply a big cautionary tale from which to learn, a slomo Kodak Moment.</p>
<p>With that in mind, let me suggest five points of learning deeply applicable to news management decisions of 2012:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Don’t believe your own b.s.</strong> Public companies carefully apply their makeup as they talk with analysts and shareholders, as do politicians. Too often, though, they begin to believe what they see in the mirror. Trumpeting the future of the department store, or of “photography,” or of community newspapering doesn’t solve the fundamental issues of disruption plaguing them. Give credit to the few change agents who publicly proclaim that the clock is ticking and that the current business model will explode sooner rather than later.</li>
<li><strong>Cutting costs ≠ innovation.</strong> Simple, right? Yet Sears chairman <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-04/sears-as-lampert-s-mismanaged-asset-loses-customers-to-macy-s.html">Eddie Lampert</a>, heralded early as a whiz by some in the business press when he took over the company in 2005, cut and cut and then cut some more, making the unattractive Sears floors even more moonscape-like than before. Most newspaper companies have cut so much, while driving out nodes of innovators here and there, that they are left half-staffed for the apps/HTML5/digital circulation revolutions playing out before them. Innovation means <em>at least</em> fast-following; otherwise, you’re left in the dust.</li>
<li><strong>Constant re-organizing and re-structuring doesn’t mask deeper problems; it just diverts time from consumer focus.</strong> Kodak is now reorganizing its units; Sears has done the same in recent years. How many times have newspaper companies shifted back and forth from standalone digital units to integrated operations, in the process losing time and focus, no matter the potential benefits of reorganization?</li>
<li><strong>Selling assets is a short-term band-aid.</strong> Kodak, as it makes a last stand, is busily <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204124204577152503598025844.html">trying to sell off</a> its intellectual property, though the value of much of that IP is in question. The sale may raise some cash, but it won’t solve long-term issues, and it will sap ability to innovate. Newspapers don’t have much IP (they have intellectual <em>capital</em>, perhaps), so they are selling their only real assets, their buildings and land, and leasing back quarters. That may buy time — but not that much.</li>
<li><strong>And, finally, perhaps the biggest parallel: The old companies are still stuck in a manufacturing mindset.</strong> Kodak creates film and products. Sears sells products. Newspapers print products and far too many “print” websites. The new world is about <em>service</em>. iPhone photos are about capturing moments, sometimes for family scrapbooks, but far more often adding to our individual and collective memories, of events, places; they are the kinds of <a href="http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/fulfillment-any-age/201110/your-smartphone-may-be-making-you-not-smart">extensions to our brains</a> that we’ve lately come to accept. Retailers like Target (“Expect more. Pay less.”) are about about price, but also attitude and service. News is about getting what I want now, not a physical product. Of course, it’s tough to change such a manufacturing mindset — one that produced profits to drool over for decades. The manufacturing mindset, though, is oh-so-last-century, and those that adhere to it are going down with it.</li>
</ul>
<p>One newer victim of the old mindset may give us pause: Best Buy. Best Buy built expensive and dominating superstores, eating alive the CompUSAs and Circuit Cities. Now Amazon and a hundred websites have made buying a 62-inch TV cheaper and as easy to deliver to your house as a sweater. Faced with disappointing financial results in an otherwise booming holiday season, Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn, like his Kodak, Sears, and newspaper counterparts before him, is left to <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203471004577144441608627950.html?mod=djemTEW_h">sputter</a>: “This misguided perspective [that electronics buying is moving profoundly online] is especially troubling for me, because it blatantly and recklessly ignores overwhelming evidence to the contrary.” His irritation is understandable — invoking Yelvington Kodak learning #4, &#8220;Disruption doesn&#8217;t happen just once&#8221;<strong> &#8212; </strong>but history is proving increasingly hostile to those failing to adapt fast enough.</p>
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		<title>The Newsonomics of the News Dial &#8216;O Matic</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jan 2012 21:22:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ken Doctor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Advertising]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Today, in 2012, those questions are more pressing in our age of news deluge. We’re confronted at every turn, at every finger gesture, with more to read or view or listen to. It’s not just the web: It’s also the smartphone and especially the tablet, birthing new aggregator products — Google Currents and Yahoo Livestand have joined Flipboard, Pulse, Zite, and AOL Editions — every month. Compare for a moment the “top stories” you get on each side-by-side, and you’ll be amazed. How did they get there? Why are they so different?

Was it some checkbox I checked (or didn’t?!) at sign-in? Using Facebook to sign in seemed so easy, but how is that affecting what I get? Are all those Twitterees I followed determining my story selection? (Or maybe that’s why I’m getting so many Chinese and German stories?) Did I tell the Times to give the sports section such low priority? The questions are endless, a ball of twine we’ve spun in declaring some preferences in our profiles over the years, wound ever wider by the intended or (or un-) social curation of Facebook and Twitter, and multiplied by the unseen but all-knowing algorithms that think they know what we really want to read, more than we do. (What if they are right? Hold that thought.)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>First published at Nieman Journalism Lab</strong></p>
<p>It’s an emerging issue of our time and place. <em>They</em> know too much about us, and we know too little about what they know. We <em>do</em> know that what they know about us is increasingly determining what they choose to give us to read. We wonder: What are we missing? And just who is making those decisions?</p>
<p>Today, in 2012, those questions are more pressing in our age of news deluge. We’re confronted at every turn, at every finger gesture, with more to read or view or listen to. It’s not just the web: It’s also the smartphone and especially the tablet, birthing new aggregator products — Google Currents and Yahoo Livestand have joined Flipboard, Pulse, Zite, and AOL Editions — every month. Compare for a moment the “top stories” you get on each side-by-side, and you’ll be amazed. How did they get there? Why are they so different?</p>
<p>Was it some checkbox I checked (or didn’t?!) at sign-in? Using Facebook to sign in seemed so easy, but how is that affecting what I get? Are all those Twitterees I followed determining my story selection? (Or maybe that’s why I’m getting so many Chinese and German stories?) Did I tell the Times to give the sports section such low priority? The questions are endless, a ball of twine we’ve spun in declaring some preferences in our profiles over the years, wound ever wider by the intended or (or un-) social curation of Facebook and Twitter, and multiplied by the unseen but all-knowing algorithms that think they know what we <em>really </em>want to read, more than we do. (What if they are right? Hold that thought.)</p>
<p>The “theys” here aren’t just the digital behemoths. Everyone in the media business — think Netflix and The New York Times as much as Pandora and People — wants to do this simple thing better: serve their customers more of what they are likely to consume so that they’ll consume more — perhaps buying digital subscriptions, services, or goods and providing very targetable eyes for advertisers. It’s not a bad goal in and of itself, but sometimes it feels like it is being done <em>to</em> us, rather than for us.</p>
<p>Our concern, and even paranoia, is growing. Take Eli Pariser’s well-viewed (500,000 times, just on YouTube) May 2011 TED <a href="http://blog.ted.com/2011/05/02/beware-online-filter-bubbles-eli-pariser-on-ted-com/">presentation</a> on “filter bubbles,” which preceded his June-published book of the same name. In the talk, Pariser talks about the fickle faces of Facebook and Google, making “invisible algorithmic editing of the web” an issue. He tells the story of how a good progressive like himself, a founder of MoveOn.org, likes to keep in touch with conservative voices and included a number in his early Facebook pages.</p>
<p>He then describes how Facebook, as it watched his actual reading patterns — he tended to read his progressive friends more than his conservative ones — began surfacing the conservative posts less and less over time, leaving his main choices (others, of course, are buried deeper down in his datastream, but not easily surfaced on that all-important first screen of his consciousness) those of like-minded people. Over time, he lost the diversity he’d sought.</p>
<p>Citing the 57 unseen filters Google uses to personalize its results for us, Pariser notes that it’s a personalization that doesn’t even seem personalized, or easily comparable: “You can’t see how different your search results are than your friends…We’re seeing a passing of the torch from human gatekeepers to algorithmic ones.”</p>
<p>Pariser’s worries have been echoed by a motley crew we can call algorithmic and social skeptics. Slowly, Fear of Facebook has joined vague grumbles about Google and ruminations about Amazon’s all-knowing recommendations. Ping, we’ve got a new digital problem on our bands. Big Data — now well-advertised in every airport and every business magazine as the new business problem of the digital age to pay someone to solve — has gotten very personal. We are more than the sum of our data, we shout. And why does everyone else know more more about me that I do?</p>
<p>The That’s My Datamine Era has arrived.</p>
<p>So we see <a href="http://www.personal.com/">Personal.com</a>, a capitalist <a href="http://adage.com/article/digitalnext/personal-data-oil/230932/">solution</a> to the uber-capitalist usage of our data. I’ve been waiting for a Personal.com (and the similar Singly.com) to come along. What’s more American than having the marketplace harness the havoc that the marketplace hath wrought? So Personal comes along with the bold-but-simple notion that we should individually decide who should see our own data, own preferences, and our own clickstreams — and be paid for the privilege of granting access (with Personal taking 10 percent of whatever bounty we take in from licensing our stuff).</p>
<p>It’s a big, and sensible, idea in and of itself. Skeptics believe the horse has left the barn, saying that so much data about us is already freely available out there to ad marketers as to make such personal databanks obsolete before they are born. They may be forgetting the power of politics. While the FCC, FTC, and others have flailed at the supposed excesses of digital behemoths, they’ve never figured out how to rein in those excesses. Granting consumers some rights over their own data — a Consumer Data Bill of Rights — would be a populist political issue, for either Republicans or Democrats or both. But, I digress.</p>
<p>I think there’s a way for us to reclaim our <em>reading</em> choices, and I’ll call it the News Dial-o-Matic, achievable with today’s technology.</p>
<p>While Personal.com gives us 121 “gem” lockers — from “Address” to “Women’s Shoes”, with data lockers for golf scores, beer lists, books, house sitters, and lock combinations along the way, we want to focus on news. News, after all, is the currency of democracy. What we read, what she reads, what they read, what I read all matter. We know we have more choice than any generation in history. In this age of plenty, how do we harness it for our own good?</p>
<p>Let’s make it easy, and let’s use technology to solve the problem technology has created. Let’s think of three simple news reading controls that could right the balance of choice, the social whirl and technology. We can even imagine them as three dials, nicely circular ones, that we can adjust with a flick of the finger or of the mouse, changing them at our whim, or time of day.</p>
<p>The three dials control the three converging factors that we’d like to to determine our news diet.</p>
<h3>Dial #1: My Sources</h3>
<p>This is the traditional title-by-title source list, deciding which titles from global news media to local blogs I want in my news flow.</p>
<h3>Dial #2: My Networks</h3>
<p>Social curation is one of the coolest ideas to come along. Why should I have to rely only on myself to find what I like (within or in addition to My Sources) when lots of people <em>like me</em> are seeking similar content? My Facebook friends, though, will give me a very different take than those I follow on Twitter. My Gmail contact list would provide another view entirely. In fact, as Google Circles has philosophized, “You share different things with different people. But sharing the right stuff with the right people shouldn’t be a hassle.” The My Networks dial lets me tune my reading of different topics by different social groups. In addition, today’s announced NewsRight — the AP News Registry spin-off intended to market actionable intelligence about news reading in the U.S. — could even play a role here. (More on NewsRight: &#8220;<a href="http://newsonomics.com/nine-questions-for-the-cusp-of-2012-newsright-erin-burnetts-screens-gail-collinss-emergence-smart-cookie-arianna/">Nine Questions for the Cusp of 2012</a>&#8220;)</p>
<h3>Dial #3: The Borg</h3>
<p>The all-knowing, ever-smarter algorithm isn’t going away — and we don’t want it to. We just want to control it — dial it down sometimes. I like thinking of it in sci-fi terms, and The Borg from “Star Trek” well illustrates its potential maniacal drive. (I love the Wikipedia Borg <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borg_(Star_Trek)">definition</a>: “The Borg manifest as <a title="Cybernetics" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cybernetics">cybernetically</a>-enhanced <a title="Humanoid" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid">humanoid</a> drones of multiple <a title="Species" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Species">species</a>, organized as an interconnected <a title="Collective" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective">collective</a>, the decisions of which are made by a <a title="Group mind (science fiction)" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_mind_(science_fiction)">hive mind</a>, linked by subspace radio frequencies. The Borg inhabit a vast region of space in the <a title="Delta Quadrant" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Quadrant">Delta Quadrant</a> of the galaxy, possessing millions of vessels and having conquered thousands of systems. They operate solely toward the fulfilling of one purpose: to “add the biological and technological distinctiveness of other species to [their] own” in pursuit of their view of <a title="Perfection" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfection">perfection</a>“.) The Borg knows more about our habits than we’d like and we can use it well, but let’s have us be the ones doing the dialing up and down.</p>
<p>Three simple round dials. They could harness the power of our minds, our relationships, and our technologies. They could utilize the smarts of human gatekeepers and of algorithmic ones. And they would return power to where it belongs, to us.</p>
<p>Where are the dials? Who powers them? Facebook, the new home page of our time, would love to, but so would Google, Amazon, and Apple, among a legion of others. Personal.com would love to be that center, as it would any major news site (The New York Times, <a href="http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2011/08/cnn-buys-zite-continues-magazine-push/">Zite-powered CNN</a>, Yahoo News). We’ll leave that question to the marketplace.</p>
<p>Lastly, what are the newsonomics of the News Dial-o-Matic? As we perfect what we want to read, the data capturing it becomes even more valuable to anyone wanting to sell us stuff. Whether that gets monetized by us directly (through the emerging Personals of the world), or a mix of publishers, aggregators, or ad networks would be a next battleground. And then: What about the <em>fourth</em> wheel, as we dial up and down what we’re in the marketplace to buy right now? Wouldn’t that be worth a tidy sum?</p>
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