Sunday and Daily News Circulation Keep Trending Downward
Important Details: In a report released Monday, the U.S. newspaper industry saw no stanching of its lifeblood loss, as print circulation continued its downward spiral with only 3 of the top 20 papers reporting increases.
The numbers were all too familiar. In a report released Monday, the Audit Bureau of Circulation, the main reporting agency for U.S. newspapers said that on average, Sunday newspaper circulation for the last 6 months is down 3.1%, with daily off a little less, at 2.1%. The report is the fifth in a row that tracks print circulation dropping at least 1.9% or more, stretching back to the late 2004/early 2005 period.
As has been the case throughout the last couple of years, major metros bore the brunt of the damage. Major papers, many of which are in faster-than-average population growth areas, showed more than 5% decrease on the day of biggest circulation day, Sunday. Those include: MediaNews’ The San Jose Mercury News (4.4%), Cox’s Austin American-Statesman, Freedom’s Orange Country Register (7%), Belo’s Dallas Morning News (13.3%), Tribune’s (South Florida) Sun Sentinel (6%), and McClatchy’s Miami Herald (10.1%).
The national press fared a little better with both USA Today and The Wall Street Journal registering gains of less than a percentage, though The New York Times lost 1.9% daily and 3.3% on Sunday.
There were a few daily gainers on the list, including the New York Post, leading the pack with 7.6% gain, the Lee-owned St. Louis Post-Dispatch (+.4%) and the Gannett-owned Indianapolis Star (+2.4%).
Several newspaper executives, including Tribune CEO Dennis Fitzsimons and McClatchy CEO Gary Pruitt, cited the continuing reduction of third-party circulation (highly subsidized and provided through hotels or at big public events like state fairs) as one part of the slide. Pruitt said it accounted for about half of his company’s 3%+ decline.
Newspaper Association of America president John Sturm pointed to a parallel set of statistics, making the point that churn of newpaper subscribers is being reduced, to 36.5% annual rate as compared to 42% in 2004 and 54.5% in 2000.
Implications: The print circulation loss is a headache that’s not going away; the days of critical mass print daily and Sunday newspaper markets are plainly waning. The Sunday decline – the day on which newspaper companies are largely dependent – is particularly worrisome. Sunday has increasingly become market day for newspapers. As Sunday mass thins, the preprint business is at stake, and that’s the one business line that has so far been least affected by Internet competition.
While the rate of future circulation decline is unpredictable, what’s important is that the trend line is a certain one. Outsell’s annual News Usage study research the unmistakable movement of readers from print to digital. Among the biggest movers are those who access news more often than average – the group Outsell defined as Power News Users – and younger demographics overall.
The headache won’t go away, but it can be managed. Managing the inevitable circulation decline offers several challenges, which news companies are unevenly taking up:
- Build additional print reach through niche, not mass, circulation. Such companies as Lee Enterprises have understood this well, creating numerous print vehicles – from event-oriented such as weddings to real estate to personal finance – and knowing that advertiser money is more likely to be associated with these than the daily paper itself.
- Build additional online reach as quickly as possible. Such experiments as Gannett’s user engagement throughout its chain, MediaNews’ Your Hub community participation models and Hearst’s more extensive use of staff blogs are steps in this direction. The new Yahoo! newspaper consortium offers the promise of greater reach as well The good news is that online user-ship continues to grow; it just needs a constant stream of booster rockets to make up for print reach losses.
- Connect these print and online reaches more effectively and monetize better through new forms of bundled, next-wave interactive advertising. U.S. newspapers, through the Newspaper Association of America, emphasize reach, adding together mass and niche print and online. The numbers are a work in progress, as they are mixed and matched. To the point that they really collectively offer a new mass, they may win (or win back) impression-based advertisers. No matter how well they do that, news companies need to deepen their resolve to get beyond impression-based models, implementing many one-to-one targeting techniques, through key word and behavioral targeting. The old mass market is not waning in a vacuum; it’s being replaced slowly by an infinite number of niche ones.